For what's it worth, I have a 2TH mining contract with Genesis mining that I think I bought about 2 months ago. Yeah.. maybe a bad idea to buy just before the halving but still.... I had prior to buying the contract done an extensive study on hardware, electricity costs and determined that I would never reach ROI by mining at home. So a cloudmining contract was the alternative at the time.
Payouts have decreased from 3.4 mBTC daily to now 1.15 mBTC. The good news is that such a contract is cheaper today then when I bought it, but the question is, is it worth it?
As of this writing a new 2TH contract with Genesis mining costs 340 USD.
How much is 0.00115 BTC/day in USD? Well currently 1.15 mBTC is about 0.76 USD/day as of this post. (BTC trading at 1 XBT = 663.817 USD)
340 USD / 0.76 USD/day = 447 days payback time.
The contract is a "life time" contract, but in reality it is valid as long as the rewards are greater than the maintenance and electrical costs to keep the miner running.
So, we see that because of the halving, all BTC contracts have taken a hit..I would expect a ton of older gear to be thrown out on ebay. Many will realize that the quick ROI times are over and that with BTC at it's current price, investments will have to be mid to long-term rather than a few months for ROI. Please keep this in mind when looking at various new ponzi sites that promise gold and high return in a few weeks, they are not legit.
I have bought both X11 contracts and Ether contracts with Genesis and both of them are looking good. However, the contracts are expensive. I have only been lucky in making a good investment (albeit small) due to the price appreciation for both Dash and Ether, that is, the dash and eth that I have received are worth more today in terms of USD.
It will all come done to two things really regarding ROI and potential profits.
- Will the difficulty continue to rise making it harder to find those precious BTC?
- Will the price climb up and help all investors?
If the hashrate starts to decrease the difficulty will go down, so a mining contract will potentially become a tiny bit stronger. But, by all practical means, it will be the price that determines whether these contracts are good or not. From the example above I would consider anything more than a year to not being worth it. Just use the USD and buy BTC straight up and down instead.
Say we wanted to reach a ROI in 6 months, the average payout per day would have to increase to
340 USD = (XX USD/BTC * 0,00115 BTC/days) * 182 days | XX=1625 USD and a daily average payout of 0,0015*1625 = 1.87 USD / day
It is up to everyone to make there own conclusions if buying a mining contract is worth it now, but with the low payouts the only hope of having any kind of realistic ROI is to play long or hope for BTC to reach a couple thousand dollars pretty much as soon as possible. Now I have heard people speculating on prices reaching up to 4000 USD this year, but that seems quite unlikely at this point.